Question: “Will you put these recent rate increases into historical perspective for us?
Looking back, starting in the 1980’s by decade, on a Freddie Mac 30. Year fixed mortgage for a primary residence, the rates from the St. Louis Fed Survey looked like this:
1980’s – about 9.00% 1990’s – about 6.75% 2000’s – about 5.25% 2010’s – about 3.50% 2020’s – about 2.75% and we are currently hovering just under 8%
We’ve all gotten accustomed to the lower rates over the last 10 years. We are now entering a period where the rates are normalizing and that rate environment is more in line with historical rates. These current rates are more in line with what the “cost of money” should be based on the last four plus decades.
Question: “What effect has the increase in mortgage rates had on buyers and sellers?
Christie’s Answer:
Here are the three things which have the potential to affect on Buyers:
The cost of homeownership has increased.
It is affecting the ability of some buyers to qualify for a mortgage.
In markets such as this, some lenders tend to become a little more conservative. While we don’t expect them to change guidelines, we do expect that they may become more conservative in their pricing.
Sellers could be affected in these ways:
Second home sales, whether houses or condos, may begin to slow. This is a big part of the St. Croix market.
Investment and speculative buying may also begin to slow. These buyers are likely to search out other investment options which may b more attractive as rates increase.
As the real estate markets and players try to “right size” themselves after a few boom years, we may find that Days on Market will be affected.
